Market View and Trades Update

Market and Breadth: The market looks pretty good, although a little overbought short term. The pullback today was mild, so that is good news. The breadth indicators on MM are green, so that is good news. The 10-day ratio looks to join the 5-day ratio above the 2 level, so that is good news. But tomorrow we have the jobs report and it could render all that useless for at least 30 minutes. How the market reacts in either direction will be interesting. Will a gap down be bought? Will a gap up be sold? We shall see. I will be watching how the market reacts to whatever happens.

Today's trading activity:

401k: Exited EBAY after it went through stop of $41 again. Lost about 3% on that one. It recovered a bit intraday but that stock just wasn't working, and EBAY is not a stock like AAPL that you can wait on. Next. Still holding AAPL, V, and TNA all profitable for now. I am not as much invested as I probably should be, barely 60% right now.

Trading Account: I took some profits today as a few stocks looked like they were petering out a bit. I exited INCY with a nifty 4.5% gain, but it looked ready to pullback after not holding its highs and I don't like holding biotechs very long in any market when swing trading. On MGAM, I exited half the position with about a 8% gain. MGAM compared to INCY had a very good volume bump on its move up, so I am willing to see where that one goes up along the 4ema. Also in my trading account, I was in and out of LF on its breakout for a 1c loss, essentially break even. The stock simply gave up too much of its gains all the way back to my entry point intraday, and that is a no-no for me. I've said before, I hate that stock.

My trading account still holds AAPL and half a position in MGAM, plus a short TNA trade using an intraday method I am trying out. But first, the stocks I took money out of today are below:

 

INCY looks pretty good on its 4ema but the

volume on this move doesn't look any higher

than the the volume during the base.

I'll take the 3-day gain and move on.



MGAM had a better volume surge on its move up, and may test its 4ema soon, so I took half my profits after an 8% gain. I will ride a trailing stop on the rest at the 4ema on a closing basis. If the market weakens here, it could pull back for a bit.

LF was one that I entered this morning and got caught up in the breakout moving so quickly that I paid more that what I wanted to. The stock ran up and I had a 5-6% gain at one time, but it came all the way back to my entry and I had seen enough of the froggy one. It will probably go up but this stock is just wild. The name fits. Ended up breaking even so no harm done. Just hate the stock more now.





On another note, I am working on an intraday trading method for TNA right now, which I hope to post later this summer. It is mostly done but only lacks some live testing. I am trying it out going forward. Since it requires some discretion I will try it out on my own account for a while first. It's funny, using that intraday system, I was short TNA at the close. So I am long TNA by one method on larger time frame and short in a different account on a smaller time frame. It's like having two friends that are dating the same girl...somebody is going to be worse off the next morning.

Look for the jobs report to gear the early trade tomorrow.