December 31, 2011
December 11, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Happy Holidays...and hope the market has been good to everyone. I have not done much lately with Thanksgiving and being extremely busy at work as a result. Market looks pretty good considering the Europe fiasco continues. It actually responded okay to the news this past week.
Indices: The indices are all near or at the highs of the ranges they have been building for the past 4 months. A range is exactly that - a range - until it is broken. Until we get through the range and hold it we are pretty much right where we were months ago. We shall see what the market does at those resistance levels. Most still have room to run to the extremes of their range. VIX looks like it wants to head down but Europe is, as always, a wild card in that regard.
Breadth: The past 11 days we had a breadth thrust, but there was that one big down day that put a dent in it. Friday's gains relieved some of that, so we still sit with the 10-day ratio on the market monitor above 2. In addition, the secondary indicators are all green as of Friday close. We are not really overbought so we may get more legs from this bounce before a correction.
Plan: If market shapes up will look to put money to work on some breakouts (STIB). 401k is already mostly invested (TNA, UA, XHB, XLE). I am cautiously optimistic on the market here going into the holidays but Europe could always drop coal in my stocking, so not getting overly aggressive here. All trades 1% risk at this point.
Indices: The indices are all near or at the highs of the ranges they have been building for the past 4 months. A range is exactly that - a range - until it is broken. Until we get through the range and hold it we are pretty much right where we were months ago. We shall see what the market does at those resistance levels. Most still have room to run to the extremes of their range. VIX looks like it wants to head down but Europe is, as always, a wild card in that regard.
Breadth: The past 11 days we had a breadth thrust, but there was that one big down day that put a dent in it. Friday's gains relieved some of that, so we still sit with the 10-day ratio on the market monitor above 2. In addition, the secondary indicators are all green as of Friday close. We are not really overbought so we may get more legs from this bounce before a correction.
Plan: If market shapes up will look to put money to work on some breakouts (STIB). 401k is already mostly invested (TNA, UA, XHB, XLE). I am cautiously optimistic on the market here going into the holidays but Europe could always drop coal in my stocking, so not getting overly aggressive here. All trades 1% risk at this point.
November 13, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Index Charts - All the market indices are basically bouncing around on Europe news in a volatile range just above recent breakout levels. The news has caused some volatility but the charts are holding up well overall on the indices.
Breadth - Primary and secondary indicators on Market Monitor are bullish. However, the fly in the ointment was the daily breadth from last week, where we had a day of 1200+ stock down 4% or more. The bounce couldn't match that level, so the recent bounce is a bit suspect. However, if we get an up day with large positive breadth the picture could change. As I said, the news is pushing the market around, so that is the wild card. Keep an eye on the daily breadth as the market bounces around here.
Plan - I need to see the daily breadth improve before doing any swing trading. Day trading is the plan when available. A positive breadth thrust would change that.
Good luck this week...
Breadth - Primary and secondary indicators on Market Monitor are bullish. However, the fly in the ointment was the daily breadth from last week, where we had a day of 1200+ stock down 4% or more. The bounce couldn't match that level, so the recent bounce is a bit suspect. However, if we get an up day with large positive breadth the picture could change. As I said, the news is pushing the market around, so that is the wild card. Keep an eye on the daily breadth as the market bounces around here.
Plan - I need to see the daily breadth improve before doing any swing trading. Day trading is the plan when available. A positive breadth thrust would change that.
Good luck this week...
November 6, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Good evening...interesting market this past week as it works through the Europe drama and consolidates. The market has made a pretty good move up in the past month.
Market Indices:
The indices essentially are all rangebound (although volatile and news driven); holding near and just above the recent breakout levels. For now, the short term moves are driven by the Europe stuff, and if it becomes too drawn out it could cause problems for the market, but predicting news is futile. Methods trump markets as Stockbee says.
Market Breadth / Market Monitor:
We had a nice breadth thrust in late October but it was followed not by a quiet consolidation, but a big negative breadth day and a so-so bounce. The bounce was enough to keep the secondary indicator (stocks up 50% in a month) at overbought levels, and also the primary indicator near extreme levels. This just means that a rally starting from these levels is likely not sustainable; it doesn't mean we can't go up but breakouts are not low risk trades in that kind of environment. The ideal scenario is some sideways or quiet rangebound action to relieve the overbought conditions, but with the news factor it may not be quiet. The general direction is still up, but we need a break without a breakdown.
Plan This Week:
To start the week I will sit tight to see what happens Monday. I am only in one anticipation trade on VRA right now as a pullback trade. Beyond that my plan is to day trade some this week. I don't want to enter many momentum based swing trades at this point with breadth at/near extremes. We are a couple of weeks from the holiday season so keeping that in mind and not getting overly aggressive outside of day trades.
Have a good week and God Bless.
Market Indices:
The indices essentially are all rangebound (although volatile and news driven); holding near and just above the recent breakout levels. For now, the short term moves are driven by the Europe stuff, and if it becomes too drawn out it could cause problems for the market, but predicting news is futile. Methods trump markets as Stockbee says.
Market Breadth / Market Monitor:
We had a nice breadth thrust in late October but it was followed not by a quiet consolidation, but a big negative breadth day and a so-so bounce. The bounce was enough to keep the secondary indicator (stocks up 50% in a month) at overbought levels, and also the primary indicator near extreme levels. This just means that a rally starting from these levels is likely not sustainable; it doesn't mean we can't go up but breakouts are not low risk trades in that kind of environment. The ideal scenario is some sideways or quiet rangebound action to relieve the overbought conditions, but with the news factor it may not be quiet. The general direction is still up, but we need a break without a breakdown.
Plan This Week:
To start the week I will sit tight to see what happens Monday. I am only in one anticipation trade on VRA right now as a pullback trade. Beyond that my plan is to day trade some this week. I don't want to enter many momentum based swing trades at this point with breadth at/near extremes. We are a couple of weeks from the holiday season so keeping that in mind and not getting overly aggressive outside of day trades.
Have a good week and God Bless.
October 23, 2011
Wheelhouse View of The Market 10.23.2011
Well the market gave us exactly what we asked for last week, some sideways action (even it it was a bit choppy). Taking a look at the indices, The Dow 30 has already broken through the September highs with next stop at the June lows; the S&P looks same so not including that chart. The Nasdaq broke through its September highs and consolidated at that level, and looks to be making an attempt to get through the flag pattern. The Russel is still within its range below the September highs, so it is lagging the big caps a bit.
Breadth is good - primary and secondary indicators on Market Monitor are in bull mode and the 10-day ratio is over 2. Markets may run into some resistance but the market seems to have buyers on the dips. I noticed it last week and it was the first time in a long while.
My plan is to trade from the long side - will be watching stocks on earnings lists on bluefin for day trades and/or swing trades. Good luck this week.
Breadth is good - primary and secondary indicators on Market Monitor are in bull mode and the 10-day ratio is over 2. Markets may run into some resistance but the market seems to have buyers on the dips. I noticed it last week and it was the first time in a long while.
My plan is to trade from the long side - will be watching stocks on earnings lists on bluefin for day trades and/or swing trades. Good luck this week.
October 16, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
The $RUT, S&P500, and VIX charts are below. $RUT has a little ways to go before potentially breaking out of its range, and the S&P500 is in the process of doing so. A break through 1233 could get to 1250-1260 quickly, but some sideways action for a few days would be a good thing between here and there. The VIX has broken down already below its range, so it looks like the volatility is subsiding for now.
Trading Account: In cash; however as market breadth is now bullish on the market monitor, momentum swing trades should work better. We have had a good thrust on breadth off the bottom, and it looks like this may have some legs to it. Since we are in earnings season, I will be focusing on the earnings watchlist from Bluefin (www.patientfisherman.blogspot.com) for some swing trading opportunities, and if my schedule allows I will be using the T method for my entry. Good example of this was LNKD from last week (see prior post).
401(k): Currently 30% invested, will be getting fully invested early this week. Current positions are TNA, LNKD, PANL. I am focusing on best setups from the Stockbee Trend Intensity universe and the Bluefin lists, preferring stocks with good earnings growth and catalyst.
Trading Account: In cash; however as market breadth is now bullish on the market monitor, momentum swing trades should work better. We have had a good thrust on breadth off the bottom, and it looks like this may have some legs to it. Since we are in earnings season, I will be focusing on the earnings watchlist from Bluefin (www.patientfisherman.blogspot.com) for some swing trading opportunities, and if my schedule allows I will be using the T method for my entry. Good example of this was LNKD from last week (see prior post).
401(k): Currently 30% invested, will be getting fully invested early this week. Current positions are TNA, LNKD, PANL. I am focusing on best setups from the Stockbee Trend Intensity universe and the Bluefin lists, preferring stocks with good earnings growth and catalyst.
Trades Week ending 10.14.11
The trades below were my day trades from last week. LNKD ended up being a multi day swing trade making $11 a share. That single trade made the week since the other ones were washes and losers. I won the week though. I'll have my weekly wheelhouse up later tonight hopefully.
October 9, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Interesting end to the week last week, but lately that is par for the course. Last week we successfully whipsawed the August lows and recovered nicely for 3 days. But as has been the case lately, the rally fizzled and had a volatile day, finishing near the lows. Yes it was a Friday, and nobody wants to be long with the Europe issues out there. The market is a bit news driven these days, but with earnings coming, maybe some of that will dominate the news less.
Market breadth is at the point where it needs some broad buying days to follow up the reversal from last week. We were in extreme oversold zone on the primary Market Monitor indicator and bounced nicely, so need to see some sideways action rather than these reversal days.
I am still only looking for day trades. However, in my retirement account I purchased some TNA after we had a broad rally off the bottom last week. I will be watching the action this week closely for that one. Good luck this week.
Market breadth is at the point where it needs some broad buying days to follow up the reversal from last week. We were in extreme oversold zone on the primary Market Monitor indicator and bounced nicely, so need to see some sideways action rather than these reversal days.
I am still only looking for day trades. However, in my retirement account I purchased some TNA after we had a broad rally off the bottom last week. I will be watching the action this week closely for that one. Good luck this week.
October 5, 2011
Bottoms - Weekly Charts
I have compiled a library of bottoms in the S&P 500 since 1970 using weekly charts. The first chart is a monthly 40 year chart, the rest are weekly charts showing some of the bottoms from the monthly chart. Thanks to Telechart for the charts. Enjoy.
S&P Monthly 1970 - 2011
S&P 500 Weekly – 2009 Bottom
S&P 500 – 2003 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1990 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1987 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1982 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1980 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1978 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1974 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1970, 1971 Bottoms
S&P Monthly 1970 - 2011
S&P 500 Weekly – 2009 Bottom
S&P 500 – 2003 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1990 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1987 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1982 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1980 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1978 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1974 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1970, 1971 Bottoms
October 2, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Storms on the horizon? The market indices are poised to test the summer lows, and the price action does not look promising. However, market breadth, though negative, is in extreme oversold zones on the Market Monitor primary indicator. Secondary indicators are not oversold though, which leaves the door open for more downside in the shorter term. VIX looks like it wants to go higher, making higher lows and if it was a stock I'd be watching for a breakout.
Several things can happen here: we either go through the lows like butta and go into free fall, we test the lows and hold to continue the range, or we test the lows for a few days before breaking them. In any case, I am not doing any swing trading but will day trade as my schedule allows. I did one trade last week on GMCR and lost 0.5%, and the market was very odd last week, so I packed it in for the week after that. This week I should have the opportunity for at least two days to do some day trading. The T works in bull or bear conditions, just have to know how to trade your stocks.
Have a great week and a profitable one. Here's the uglies:
Several things can happen here: we either go through the lows like butta and go into free fall, we test the lows and hold to continue the range, or we test the lows for a few days before breaking them. In any case, I am not doing any swing trading but will day trade as my schedule allows. I did one trade last week on GMCR and lost 0.5%, and the market was very odd last week, so I packed it in for the week after that. This week I should have the opportunity for at least two days to do some day trading. The T works in bull or bear conditions, just have to know how to trade your stocks.
Have a great week and a profitable one. Here's the uglies:
September 28, 2011
Wednesday Weeversal
As I sit and watch my Braves do all they can to blow their season, and after a reversal from Tuesday's highs to Wednesday's lows, I figure it was a good time to take another look at where we are to distract me from the inevitable down fall of my favorite baseball team. But I digress...
Charts below are the S&P, Nas Comp, $RUT, and VIX. The major indices failed at their 50-day and the $RUT never even made it that far, as has been noted in earlier posts. The $RUT has lagged this recent bounce. The VIX looks bullish if it was a stock. Unfortunately for stocks, it isn't a stock. Not looking to good for the market, and failure to hold recent lows will possible bring some issues for stocks with it. Depends on where we are when we get there, if we get there.
Breadth is still not promising for swing trades from the long side. With the high volatility, day trading is still the name of the game, and remaining in cash otherwise. This has been a profitable formula last couple of months so I will stay with it until Mr. Market decides to favor that strategy.
Good luck the rest of the week, here are the charts:
Charts below are the S&P, Nas Comp, $RUT, and VIX. The major indices failed at their 50-day and the $RUT never even made it that far, as has been noted in earlier posts. The $RUT has lagged this recent bounce. The VIX looks bullish if it was a stock. Unfortunately for stocks, it isn't a stock. Not looking to good for the market, and failure to hold recent lows will possible bring some issues for stocks with it. Depends on where we are when we get there, if we get there.
Breadth is still not promising for swing trades from the long side. With the high volatility, day trading is still the name of the game, and remaining in cash otherwise. This has been a profitable formula last couple of months so I will stay with it until Mr. Market decides to favor that strategy.
Good luck the rest of the week, here are the charts:
September 25, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Interesting past few weeks for the market. The indices are all at the August lows; in the case of the $RUT, it is just below the lows. Primary breadth indicator on the Market Monitor is near extremes, and we have had a bearish thrust last couple of weeks. The market is certainly in an area of opportunity for a bounce. But I would have liked to have seen a bad day Friday to punch through the August lows, getting us more oversold than we are, and then snapping back above those lows. Instead we got a dead cat bounce.
Any bounce from here may be tradable, particularly with end of month this week; but without the breadth thrust, a tradable bounce is all it will be, before the next leg down. Currently in cash and taking day trading opportunities as my schedule allows. I am now in the green ever so slightly for the year so, not getting aggressive with swing trading from either side yet; when I do, I will be focusing on the post earnings surprise list from Bluefin. Volatility is still pretty high and great for day trading.
The charts below are the VIX, Dow 30, and $RUT. As you can see, we are at support areas but seem to be holding on by a nail. Good luck this week.
VIX
$RUT
$DJI
Any bounce from here may be tradable, particularly with end of month this week; but without the breadth thrust, a tradable bounce is all it will be, before the next leg down. Currently in cash and taking day trading opportunities as my schedule allows. I am now in the green ever so slightly for the year so, not getting aggressive with swing trading from either side yet; when I do, I will be focusing on the post earnings surprise list from Bluefin. Volatility is still pretty high and great for day trading.
The charts below are the VIX, Dow 30, and $RUT. As you can see, we are at support areas but seem to be holding on by a nail. Good luck this week.
VIX
$RUT
$DJI
September 23, 2011
Today's Trades
Did a couple of day trades today, both on the same stock, SINA. This stock is a China stock that moves nicely intraday.
Trade #1: This trade was entered in the morning, after the opening action. The stock made a nice push on a large green frame to start the move, then pulled back and reset. I entered on the first yellow arrow, and the two blue arrows are my exit. The second exit was based on the expectation that once it passed the $86 area, it would test the gap at $87.60 or so. So I put a limit order just below the gap at $87.50 and moved my stop up to $86.00, my previous exit point. Worst case I make $1.60 a share, best case I average out to $2.40 a share profit, which is what happened. Probably one of the more satisfying trades I have had lately. But then I put a small ding in it with trade #2.
Trade #2: This trade, quite frankly, should have been entered on the frame before I entered. There's a little green candle, almost a doji, a couple of frames prior to the large green frame. The frame after entry was a flag pole and red frame closing on lows with a flat ema, so I cut it loose for a loss of 7 cents. Probably should have accepted the fact that I missed the optimal entry, but it feels good to be in cash and have a good day.
I'll have my weekly review of the market over the weekend. Till then, be merry.
September 21, 2011
Comparing Recent Bull and Bear Markets
Dow weekly charts for 2003-2007 bull, 2007-2009 bear, 2009-2011 bull, and 2011 top are below. See the similarities. Current situation looks a lot like early stage of last bear market. And all the news that comes with it too. Look out below, could still get bumpy over larget time frame; today's move down has been setting up for weeks now.
2003-2007 (see the top at right edge)
2007-2009 bear and 2009-2011 bull:
Zoom in on 2009-2011 bull...looks similar to last top in 2007:
2003-2007 (see the top at right edge)
2007-2009 bear and 2009-2011 bull:
Zoom in on 2009-2011 bull...looks similar to last top in 2007:
September 20, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
I was just taking a look at the indices tonight, and it really doesn't look that good. We have essentially consolidated in a range up to the 50-day sma's on each index. The $RUT couldn't even make it that far. A down leg from here is certainly possible. Today's action was not great either, and with a FOMC meeting tomorrow the volatility will be up there.
Still only day trading when schedule allows. It allows tomorrow :)))
Happy Trading
September 7, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
If you take a look at the Dow 30, Nasdaq Composite, and the Vix, they all look to be forming a range or channel working towards the 50 day sma. The bearish flag on the Dow/SP/Wilshire/NYSE are essentially ranges with today's rally off the bottom of the flag. Nasdaq looks less bearish but is still below the 50 sma. The market is looking more like it needs some range bound action...accumulation...before getting into bull market territory again.
Day trading remains the name of the game for now. RIMM was my only day trade today, went 113% on margin and took a quick 40 cents in a 30 minute trade. Made 1.4% on the account...took me more time than that to eat my lunch afterward. I'll take it...one more brick. Good luck rest of the week.
Day trading remains the name of the game for now. RIMM was my only day trade today, went 113% on margin and took a quick 40 cents in a 30 minute trade. Made 1.4% on the account...took me more time than that to eat my lunch afterward. I'll take it...one more brick. Good luck rest of the week.
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