December 11, 2011

Wheelhouse View of the Market

Happy Holidays...and hope the market has been good to everyone. I have not done much lately with Thanksgiving and being extremely busy at work as a result. Market looks pretty good considering the Europe fiasco continues. It actually responded okay to the news this past week.

Indices: The indices are all near or at the highs of the ranges they have been building for the past 4 months. A range is exactly that - a range - until it is broken. Until we get through the range and hold it we are pretty much right where we were months ago. We shall see what the market does at those resistance levels. Most still have room to run to the extremes of their range. VIX looks like it wants to head down but Europe is, as always, a wild card in that regard.

Breadth: The past 11 days we had a breadth thrust, but there was that one big down day that put a dent in it. Friday's gains relieved some of that, so we still sit with the 10-day ratio on the market monitor above 2. In addition, the secondary indicators are all green as of Friday close. We are not really overbought so we may get more legs from this bounce before a correction.

Plan: If market shapes up will look to put money to work on some breakouts (STIB). 401k is already mostly invested (TNA, UA, XHB, XLE). I am cautiously optimistic on the market here going into the holidays but Europe could always drop coal in my stocking, so not getting overly aggressive here. All trades 1% risk at this point.