I was stopped out of both AAPL and LNKD yesterday just in time for the reversal upward. Ain't that today's market? That can happen when stops are at support levels, you get whipsawed and watch your stock recover the losses. Hey it happens. Next trade.
So today I got right back in AAPL, although at a higher price. Also entered MGAM and NTSP, which held their gains to the close. Took LF early but it gave up its gains and is not looking too good.
TNA Method triggered a buy signal today on the close, bought just after hours. Running a $3 stop under entry for now.
Final MM figures look like a 600+ positive breadth day today with breadth improving on the secondary indicators. Although we gapped up and stayed there, it was noticeable what we DIDN'T do, and that was sell off on the gains. Recent behavior would lead one to expect heavy profit taking for the weekend and that did not happen, so we will see what the shortened week brings next week. I don't expect a lot of volume but will take what the market makes available.
Have a great weekend. It is 106 degrees today and the weekend forecast calls for the same, so I should be able to do some research this weekend and be ready for earnings season which is just ahead. Cheers.
June 29, 2012
June 26, 2012
Trades Update
In this type of market, if I am going to trade, it is going to be pullbacks to support or anticipation of breakouts, with hope of taking profits at the breakout level. I have done that with both AAPL and LNKD. Both stocks are within consolidation at different points. AAPL is at support and LNKD is moving up within its range nearing the highs. With month end and beginning of the 3rd quarter upon us, there is usually a bullish tendency to the market in general. If that happens hear we could see a tradable bounce into the July 4th holidays.
Back in AAPL today at $571.47 with a stop $5 below entry. Stock has made a nice pullback to tight range support and could bounce here with first of the month and earnings season coming. First target is $590 and optimistic target is the old highs. Risk is 0.5%.
Entered LNKD at $106.48 in another trade within a range, anticipating a breakout. Stop is $4 below entry; risk is 0.5%. I was hoping for a stronger move into the close from LNKD but the market pulled back near the close and spoiled my fun. If it doesn't break through the highs of the range on the next test, likely tomorrow or the next day, it will be time to cut and run for now. I must say though, it looks like it wants to breakout, just needs volume to push it through. Will ride the 4ema up if it breaks out.
Still in EBAY with a stop at $41. This one may test support here for a few days, but it has held it breakout area nicely. I don't want to see it hang here too long before resuming its up move.
Back in AAPL today at $571.47 with a stop $5 below entry. Stock has made a nice pullback to tight range support and could bounce here with first of the month and earnings season coming. First target is $590 and optimistic target is the old highs. Risk is 0.5%.
Entered LNKD at $106.48 in another trade within a range, anticipating a breakout. Stop is $4 below entry; risk is 0.5%. I was hoping for a stronger move into the close from LNKD but the market pulled back near the close and spoiled my fun. If it doesn't break through the highs of the range on the next test, likely tomorrow or the next day, it will be time to cut and run for now. I must say though, it looks like it wants to breakout, just needs volume to push it through. Will ride the 4ema up if it breaks out.
Still in EBAY with a stop at $41. This one may test support here for a few days, but it has held it breakout area nicely. I don't want to see it hang here too long before resuming its up move.
June 21, 2012
Trades Update
Stopped out of AAPL today at $580. EBAY still in with stop at $41. The market action obviously was not good today, with over 500 stocks down 4% or more on higher volume. I will keep close tabs on EBAY and shut it down if the breakout fails and stop is hit.
June 19, 2012
Favorite Charts from Monday
Entered both of these yesterday. Treading lightly with 1% risk on each. The EBAY chart in particular caught my eye before the breakout and the volume was very nice on the new highs yesterday.
June 13, 2012
Breadth Thrust from a Bottom
Using the 2011 bottom as an example, this is what a breadth thrust on Market Monitor should look like from the bottom up. Note that even after this thrust, we had a shakeout / retest in November 2011 before we got the follow through breadth thrust in December/January. Note the large size of the up days coming off the 10/3/11 capitulation day. These are not just 300-400 days, these are 1201, 415, 538, 603, 628, 1683 up days; huge breadth on the upside. At the time we were in a very volatile market, so the 300-500 negative breadth days were not out of the ordinary, and were relatively small when you look at the surrounding positive days. It tells you there is some serious buying in the market. This is what we want to see, but it may only come after a capitulation type sell off similar to the last few days of September 2011. Europe may provide exactly that at some point. We shall see.
Compare the above to what we have now and you can see the difference:
June 10, 2012
Weekly Wheelhouse View of the Market
I really should rename this post tri-annual wheelhouse, given how long it has been since I posted one. Come on, I have two kids and a trophy wife to keep happy, not to mention a full time job and swing trading on the side. So let's take a quick look at the situation here.
If you just look at where we have been the past month or so, you will see that it has not paid to be a swing trader. Although the selling has not been broad based or on heavy volume, it has not been a good time to trade my style. Since my primary method is based on momentum breakouts, I basically have to sit back and enjoy the show during these times. We had a pretty linear sell off in May, and many leaders had their charts taken out behind the woodshed. However, the selling was not in the range of 600+ down breadth days as we would see during a bear market. At this point, I see this as a nice correction after a 3-month rally rather than a bear market. However, that does not mean that this won't turn into a nasty bear market.
So here we sit, with a 5-day ratio above 2.0, mainly because a large down day dropped off the calculation range. My research on MM and TNA has indicated that when the market takes an entire 5 days to create a breadth thrust during a down trend, it should be approached cautiously. I have a rule that I do not enter on a breadth thrust if the market was up 3 straight days; typically this indicates an oversold bounce and a short-term overbought condition, especially when the market is either in a down trend or range-bound. Could this turn into a new bull rally? Rather than answer yes, or no, let's take a look at the start of the most recent rally from the MM point of view. Notice the volatile action in early December followed by a 900+ up breadth day on 12/20/2011. That day was key - it also flipped the secondary ratio from red to green (# of stocks up 25% in a month). You will then notice the breadth action that followed...there were no huge down days, only mild pullbacks followed the 12/20/2011 up day. Then, on 1/3/12, we got the follow through, and off we went.
Now comparing that action to the current action, my best guess is that this is a technical bounce within a downtrend. That doesn't mean the market won't go up, it just means the rally has a foundation made of sand instead of brick and will not likely last very long.
Based on my last post back in April, I am better off fishing than trying to trade breakouts in this type of action.
I have not posted here but market bread indicators such as $BPNYA are still in bearish mode, even though there seems to be a little hope and excitement about the recent days. Spain got a bailout this weekend, but geopolitical stuff is totally unpredictable. If the market gaps up on Monday, which it probably will on the Spain news, it will suck in some swing traders. Don't be that guy. If this is truly the start of a broad rally, there will be chances to enter later. For now, this is a counter trend rally into resistance, and should be treated as such.
I may be wrong, and that is perfectly fine. My objective is to make money, not to be right. And as of now I am beating the market in both my trading account and my 401k, which is fantastic in my book.
Best of luck this week.
If you just look at where we have been the past month or so, you will see that it has not paid to be a swing trader. Although the selling has not been broad based or on heavy volume, it has not been a good time to trade my style. Since my primary method is based on momentum breakouts, I basically have to sit back and enjoy the show during these times. We had a pretty linear sell off in May, and many leaders had their charts taken out behind the woodshed. However, the selling was not in the range of 600+ down breadth days as we would see during a bear market. At this point, I see this as a nice correction after a 3-month rally rather than a bear market. However, that does not mean that this won't turn into a nasty bear market.
So here we sit, with a 5-day ratio above 2.0, mainly because a large down day dropped off the calculation range. My research on MM and TNA has indicated that when the market takes an entire 5 days to create a breadth thrust during a down trend, it should be approached cautiously. I have a rule that I do not enter on a breadth thrust if the market was up 3 straight days; typically this indicates an oversold bounce and a short-term overbought condition, especially when the market is either in a down trend or range-bound. Could this turn into a new bull rally? Rather than answer yes, or no, let's take a look at the start of the most recent rally from the MM point of view. Notice the volatile action in early December followed by a 900+ up breadth day on 12/20/2011. That day was key - it also flipped the secondary ratio from red to green (# of stocks up 25% in a month). You will then notice the breadth action that followed...there were no huge down days, only mild pullbacks followed the 12/20/2011 up day. Then, on 1/3/12, we got the follow through, and off we went.
Based on my last post back in April, I am better off fishing than trying to trade breakouts in this type of action.
I have not posted here but market bread indicators such as $BPNYA are still in bearish mode, even though there seems to be a little hope and excitement about the recent days. Spain got a bailout this weekend, but geopolitical stuff is totally unpredictable. If the market gaps up on Monday, which it probably will on the Spain news, it will suck in some swing traders. Don't be that guy. If this is truly the start of a broad rally, there will be chances to enter later. For now, this is a counter trend rally into resistance, and should be treated as such.
I may be wrong, and that is perfectly fine. My objective is to make money, not to be right. And as of now I am beating the market in both my trading account and my 401k, which is fantastic in my book.
Best of luck this week.
April 16, 2012
Analyzing Prior Trades
My favorite part of trading is making money. The results tell you whether you are doing something right or something wrong. But they don't tell you what you may have done well or not so well.
My least favorite part of trading is analyzing lists of prior trades; probably because it reminds me that I am not the worlds greatest trader and allows me to see mistakes I have made. I have underestimated it as a learning tool in the past but I have been trying to analyze my trades either quarterly or during corrections since last year. This has reminded me that analyzing prior trades later on can be valuable in exposing trading errors or telling you whether certain time periods are not good times to trade. You may not always pick up on these and really think clearly about them after you just had your stop taken out and had the stock rally 20% without you, or had your breakout reverse the next day on a letter from some suit (hello GS).
I look at all my trades immediately after I close them, I move to the next one pretty quickly and chalk it up to a trade that didn't work. Since the market has gone into a little correction phase here, I thought it was a perfect time to analyze my YTD trades and see if I had some things to improve on. Unfortunately, and fortunately at the same time, I had plenty to see.
I simply took my trade log and calculated my trading accuracy, average winner, and average loser (%). I then calculated an AvgW/AvgL ratio. Then I inserted columns for various Market Monitor indicators (5-day ratio, 10-day ratio, and Primary Indicator Stocks Down raw figure). Any time the 5-day and/or 10-day ratios were >2, the respective column got shaded. Any time the Primary indicator reached bullish extremes (i.e. overbought), that column got shaded. This made it fairly simple to see how I did during certain market phases as dictated by MM. I can clearly see when I did well and when I did not.
In addition, I labeled each trade as either a breakout failure, breakout failure with no follow through, stop and go (takes your stop out and rallies...hate that), trading error, and pre-eps report exit. It is possible for trades that make money to have one of these categories assigned, and trades can end up in more than one category as well.
Without further delay, here's my trading stats for through April 13th. The cumulative gain loss is simply the raw total of my % gain/loss on all trades, it is not my actual portfolio return due to position sizing.
My least favorite part of trading is analyzing lists of prior trades; probably because it reminds me that I am not the worlds greatest trader and allows me to see mistakes I have made. I have underestimated it as a learning tool in the past but I have been trying to analyze my trades either quarterly or during corrections since last year. This has reminded me that analyzing prior trades later on can be valuable in exposing trading errors or telling you whether certain time periods are not good times to trade. You may not always pick up on these and really think clearly about them after you just had your stop taken out and had the stock rally 20% without you, or had your breakout reverse the next day on a letter from some suit (hello GS).
I look at all my trades immediately after I close them, I move to the next one pretty quickly and chalk it up to a trade that didn't work. Since the market has gone into a little correction phase here, I thought it was a perfect time to analyze my YTD trades and see if I had some things to improve on. Unfortunately, and fortunately at the same time, I had plenty to see.
I simply took my trade log and calculated my trading accuracy, average winner, and average loser (%). I then calculated an AvgW/AvgL ratio. Then I inserted columns for various Market Monitor indicators (5-day ratio, 10-day ratio, and Primary Indicator Stocks Down raw figure). Any time the 5-day and/or 10-day ratios were >2, the respective column got shaded. Any time the Primary indicator reached bullish extremes (i.e. overbought), that column got shaded. This made it fairly simple to see how I did during certain market phases as dictated by MM. I can clearly see when I did well and when I did not.
In addition, I labeled each trade as either a breakout failure, breakout failure with no follow through, stop and go (takes your stop out and rallies...hate that), trading error, and pre-eps report exit. It is possible for trades that make money to have one of these categories assigned, and trades can end up in more than one category as well.
Without further delay, here's my trading stats for through April 13th. The cumulative gain loss is simply the raw total of my % gain/loss on all trades, it is not my actual portfolio return due to position sizing.
January 31, 2012
DJI
Laptop battery is on fumes right now so real quick. Keep an eye on the DJI. It is near highs. Later!
December 31, 2011
December 11, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Happy Holidays...and hope the market has been good to everyone. I have not done much lately with Thanksgiving and being extremely busy at work as a result. Market looks pretty good considering the Europe fiasco continues. It actually responded okay to the news this past week.
Indices: The indices are all near or at the highs of the ranges they have been building for the past 4 months. A range is exactly that - a range - until it is broken. Until we get through the range and hold it we are pretty much right where we were months ago. We shall see what the market does at those resistance levels. Most still have room to run to the extremes of their range. VIX looks like it wants to head down but Europe is, as always, a wild card in that regard.
Breadth: The past 11 days we had a breadth thrust, but there was that one big down day that put a dent in it. Friday's gains relieved some of that, so we still sit with the 10-day ratio on the market monitor above 2. In addition, the secondary indicators are all green as of Friday close. We are not really overbought so we may get more legs from this bounce before a correction.
Plan: If market shapes up will look to put money to work on some breakouts (STIB). 401k is already mostly invested (TNA, UA, XHB, XLE). I am cautiously optimistic on the market here going into the holidays but Europe could always drop coal in my stocking, so not getting overly aggressive here. All trades 1% risk at this point.
Indices: The indices are all near or at the highs of the ranges they have been building for the past 4 months. A range is exactly that - a range - until it is broken. Until we get through the range and hold it we are pretty much right where we were months ago. We shall see what the market does at those resistance levels. Most still have room to run to the extremes of their range. VIX looks like it wants to head down but Europe is, as always, a wild card in that regard.
Breadth: The past 11 days we had a breadth thrust, but there was that one big down day that put a dent in it. Friday's gains relieved some of that, so we still sit with the 10-day ratio on the market monitor above 2. In addition, the secondary indicators are all green as of Friday close. We are not really overbought so we may get more legs from this bounce before a correction.
Plan: If market shapes up will look to put money to work on some breakouts (STIB). 401k is already mostly invested (TNA, UA, XHB, XLE). I am cautiously optimistic on the market here going into the holidays but Europe could always drop coal in my stocking, so not getting overly aggressive here. All trades 1% risk at this point.
November 13, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Index Charts - All the market indices are basically bouncing around on Europe news in a volatile range just above recent breakout levels. The news has caused some volatility but the charts are holding up well overall on the indices.
Breadth - Primary and secondary indicators on Market Monitor are bullish. However, the fly in the ointment was the daily breadth from last week, where we had a day of 1200+ stock down 4% or more. The bounce couldn't match that level, so the recent bounce is a bit suspect. However, if we get an up day with large positive breadth the picture could change. As I said, the news is pushing the market around, so that is the wild card. Keep an eye on the daily breadth as the market bounces around here.
Plan - I need to see the daily breadth improve before doing any swing trading. Day trading is the plan when available. A positive breadth thrust would change that.
Good luck this week...
Breadth - Primary and secondary indicators on Market Monitor are bullish. However, the fly in the ointment was the daily breadth from last week, where we had a day of 1200+ stock down 4% or more. The bounce couldn't match that level, so the recent bounce is a bit suspect. However, if we get an up day with large positive breadth the picture could change. As I said, the news is pushing the market around, so that is the wild card. Keep an eye on the daily breadth as the market bounces around here.
Plan - I need to see the daily breadth improve before doing any swing trading. Day trading is the plan when available. A positive breadth thrust would change that.
Good luck this week...
November 6, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Good evening...interesting market this past week as it works through the Europe drama and consolidates. The market has made a pretty good move up in the past month.
Market Indices:
The indices essentially are all rangebound (although volatile and news driven); holding near and just above the recent breakout levels. For now, the short term moves are driven by the Europe stuff, and if it becomes too drawn out it could cause problems for the market, but predicting news is futile. Methods trump markets as Stockbee says.
Market Breadth / Market Monitor:
We had a nice breadth thrust in late October but it was followed not by a quiet consolidation, but a big negative breadth day and a so-so bounce. The bounce was enough to keep the secondary indicator (stocks up 50% in a month) at overbought levels, and also the primary indicator near extreme levels. This just means that a rally starting from these levels is likely not sustainable; it doesn't mean we can't go up but breakouts are not low risk trades in that kind of environment. The ideal scenario is some sideways or quiet rangebound action to relieve the overbought conditions, but with the news factor it may not be quiet. The general direction is still up, but we need a break without a breakdown.
Plan This Week:
To start the week I will sit tight to see what happens Monday. I am only in one anticipation trade on VRA right now as a pullback trade. Beyond that my plan is to day trade some this week. I don't want to enter many momentum based swing trades at this point with breadth at/near extremes. We are a couple of weeks from the holiday season so keeping that in mind and not getting overly aggressive outside of day trades.
Have a good week and God Bless.
Market Indices:
The indices essentially are all rangebound (although volatile and news driven); holding near and just above the recent breakout levels. For now, the short term moves are driven by the Europe stuff, and if it becomes too drawn out it could cause problems for the market, but predicting news is futile. Methods trump markets as Stockbee says.
Market Breadth / Market Monitor:
We had a nice breadth thrust in late October but it was followed not by a quiet consolidation, but a big negative breadth day and a so-so bounce. The bounce was enough to keep the secondary indicator (stocks up 50% in a month) at overbought levels, and also the primary indicator near extreme levels. This just means that a rally starting from these levels is likely not sustainable; it doesn't mean we can't go up but breakouts are not low risk trades in that kind of environment. The ideal scenario is some sideways or quiet rangebound action to relieve the overbought conditions, but with the news factor it may not be quiet. The general direction is still up, but we need a break without a breakdown.
Plan This Week:
To start the week I will sit tight to see what happens Monday. I am only in one anticipation trade on VRA right now as a pullback trade. Beyond that my plan is to day trade some this week. I don't want to enter many momentum based swing trades at this point with breadth at/near extremes. We are a couple of weeks from the holiday season so keeping that in mind and not getting overly aggressive outside of day trades.
Have a good week and God Bless.
October 23, 2011
Wheelhouse View of The Market 10.23.2011
Well the market gave us exactly what we asked for last week, some sideways action (even it it was a bit choppy). Taking a look at the indices, The Dow 30 has already broken through the September highs with next stop at the June lows; the S&P looks same so not including that chart. The Nasdaq broke through its September highs and consolidated at that level, and looks to be making an attempt to get through the flag pattern. The Russel is still within its range below the September highs, so it is lagging the big caps a bit.
Breadth is good - primary and secondary indicators on Market Monitor are in bull mode and the 10-day ratio is over 2. Markets may run into some resistance but the market seems to have buyers on the dips. I noticed it last week and it was the first time in a long while.
My plan is to trade from the long side - will be watching stocks on earnings lists on bluefin for day trades and/or swing trades. Good luck this week.
Breadth is good - primary and secondary indicators on Market Monitor are in bull mode and the 10-day ratio is over 2. Markets may run into some resistance but the market seems to have buyers on the dips. I noticed it last week and it was the first time in a long while.
My plan is to trade from the long side - will be watching stocks on earnings lists on bluefin for day trades and/or swing trades. Good luck this week.
October 16, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
The $RUT, S&P500, and VIX charts are below. $RUT has a little ways to go before potentially breaking out of its range, and the S&P500 is in the process of doing so. A break through 1233 could get to 1250-1260 quickly, but some sideways action for a few days would be a good thing between here and there. The VIX has broken down already below its range, so it looks like the volatility is subsiding for now.
Trading Account: In cash; however as market breadth is now bullish on the market monitor, momentum swing trades should work better. We have had a good thrust on breadth off the bottom, and it looks like this may have some legs to it. Since we are in earnings season, I will be focusing on the earnings watchlist from Bluefin (www.patientfisherman.blogspot.com) for some swing trading opportunities, and if my schedule allows I will be using the T method for my entry. Good example of this was LNKD from last week (see prior post).
401(k): Currently 30% invested, will be getting fully invested early this week. Current positions are TNA, LNKD, PANL. I am focusing on best setups from the Stockbee Trend Intensity universe and the Bluefin lists, preferring stocks with good earnings growth and catalyst.
Trading Account: In cash; however as market breadth is now bullish on the market monitor, momentum swing trades should work better. We have had a good thrust on breadth off the bottom, and it looks like this may have some legs to it. Since we are in earnings season, I will be focusing on the earnings watchlist from Bluefin (www.patientfisherman.blogspot.com) for some swing trading opportunities, and if my schedule allows I will be using the T method for my entry. Good example of this was LNKD from last week (see prior post).
401(k): Currently 30% invested, will be getting fully invested early this week. Current positions are TNA, LNKD, PANL. I am focusing on best setups from the Stockbee Trend Intensity universe and the Bluefin lists, preferring stocks with good earnings growth and catalyst.
Trades Week ending 10.14.11
The trades below were my day trades from last week. LNKD ended up being a multi day swing trade making $11 a share. That single trade made the week since the other ones were washes and losers. I won the week though. I'll have my weekly wheelhouse up later tonight hopefully.
October 9, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Interesting end to the week last week, but lately that is par for the course. Last week we successfully whipsawed the August lows and recovered nicely for 3 days. But as has been the case lately, the rally fizzled and had a volatile day, finishing near the lows. Yes it was a Friday, and nobody wants to be long with the Europe issues out there. The market is a bit news driven these days, but with earnings coming, maybe some of that will dominate the news less.
Market breadth is at the point where it needs some broad buying days to follow up the reversal from last week. We were in extreme oversold zone on the primary Market Monitor indicator and bounced nicely, so need to see some sideways action rather than these reversal days.
I am still only looking for day trades. However, in my retirement account I purchased some TNA after we had a broad rally off the bottom last week. I will be watching the action this week closely for that one. Good luck this week.
Market breadth is at the point where it needs some broad buying days to follow up the reversal from last week. We were in extreme oversold zone on the primary Market Monitor indicator and bounced nicely, so need to see some sideways action rather than these reversal days.
I am still only looking for day trades. However, in my retirement account I purchased some TNA after we had a broad rally off the bottom last week. I will be watching the action this week closely for that one. Good luck this week.
October 5, 2011
Bottoms - Weekly Charts
I have compiled a library of bottoms in the S&P 500 since 1970 using weekly charts. The first chart is a monthly 40 year chart, the rest are weekly charts showing some of the bottoms from the monthly chart. Thanks to Telechart for the charts. Enjoy.
S&P Monthly 1970 - 2011
S&P 500 Weekly – 2009 Bottom
S&P 500 – 2003 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1990 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1987 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1982 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1980 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1978 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1974 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1970, 1971 Bottoms
S&P Monthly 1970 - 2011
S&P 500 Weekly – 2009 Bottom
S&P 500 – 2003 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1990 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1987 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1982 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1980 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1978 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1974 Bottom
S&P 500 – 1970, 1971 Bottoms
October 2, 2011
Wheelhouse View of the Market
Storms on the horizon? The market indices are poised to test the summer lows, and the price action does not look promising. However, market breadth, though negative, is in extreme oversold zones on the Market Monitor primary indicator. Secondary indicators are not oversold though, which leaves the door open for more downside in the shorter term. VIX looks like it wants to go higher, making higher lows and if it was a stock I'd be watching for a breakout.
Several things can happen here: we either go through the lows like butta and go into free fall, we test the lows and hold to continue the range, or we test the lows for a few days before breaking them. In any case, I am not doing any swing trading but will day trade as my schedule allows. I did one trade last week on GMCR and lost 0.5%, and the market was very odd last week, so I packed it in for the week after that. This week I should have the opportunity for at least two days to do some day trading. The T works in bull or bear conditions, just have to know how to trade your stocks.
Have a great week and a profitable one. Here's the uglies:
Several things can happen here: we either go through the lows like butta and go into free fall, we test the lows and hold to continue the range, or we test the lows for a few days before breaking them. In any case, I am not doing any swing trading but will day trade as my schedule allows. I did one trade last week on GMCR and lost 0.5%, and the market was very odd last week, so I packed it in for the week after that. This week I should have the opportunity for at least two days to do some day trading. The T works in bull or bear conditions, just have to know how to trade your stocks.
Have a great week and a profitable one. Here's the uglies:
September 28, 2011
Wednesday Weeversal
As I sit and watch my Braves do all they can to blow their season, and after a reversal from Tuesday's highs to Wednesday's lows, I figure it was a good time to take another look at where we are to distract me from the inevitable down fall of my favorite baseball team. But I digress...
Charts below are the S&P, Nas Comp, $RUT, and VIX. The major indices failed at their 50-day and the $RUT never even made it that far, as has been noted in earlier posts. The $RUT has lagged this recent bounce. The VIX looks bullish if it was a stock. Unfortunately for stocks, it isn't a stock. Not looking to good for the market, and failure to hold recent lows will possible bring some issues for stocks with it. Depends on where we are when we get there, if we get there.
Breadth is still not promising for swing trades from the long side. With the high volatility, day trading is still the name of the game, and remaining in cash otherwise. This has been a profitable formula last couple of months so I will stay with it until Mr. Market decides to favor that strategy.
Good luck the rest of the week, here are the charts:
Charts below are the S&P, Nas Comp, $RUT, and VIX. The major indices failed at their 50-day and the $RUT never even made it that far, as has been noted in earlier posts. The $RUT has lagged this recent bounce. The VIX looks bullish if it was a stock. Unfortunately for stocks, it isn't a stock. Not looking to good for the market, and failure to hold recent lows will possible bring some issues for stocks with it. Depends on where we are when we get there, if we get there.
Breadth is still not promising for swing trades from the long side. With the high volatility, day trading is still the name of the game, and remaining in cash otherwise. This has been a profitable formula last couple of months so I will stay with it until Mr. Market decides to favor that strategy.
Good luck the rest of the week, here are the charts:
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