Welcome to my world of swing trading. My focus is on momentum, earnings, and limited day trading. The tools I use are available on the other blogs listed on the right side of this page. Let's set sail.
January 28, 2011
Chart Porn
While I am working, here are the weekly charts from the first 4 stocks. Tell me what you see - there are no wrong answers.
amrn: 1st b/o on 10MA/40MA crossover, consolidate in cup/handle with b/o(gap up) towards end of Oct/begin. of Nov. on highest volume. follow-thru momentum till end of Dec. Looks like exhaustion run on last 3 candles with long tails. I would close position on the 2nd to last candle as it looks like distribution (high volume, but price closed lower than open for the week.
rdcm: 1st b/o Oct '09, consolidation till April '10 on high vol. b/o again price ran up for 4 weeks before p/b to 50DMA where support came an more buyers ran stock up another 4-5 weeks. I would look to capture partial profits during that 4-5 week run on both b/o and bought back some on the p/b to 50DMA, based on higher volume on up days, lower volumes on down days during consolidation phase. Highest volume selloff around Oct '11, so definitely would have exited by then. Looks like distribution after that as higher vol on down days versus up days. Would have played the b/o on the 50DMA as a quick trade with target near $13 (high point of weekly volume selloff), most likely w/0.5%R.
HDY: Major b/o around Oct'10, no p/b on next 2 weeks on tight consolidation. Looks like no sellers and then another 3 weeks of upward price movement. I would probably be looking to capture profits in that upswing. Explosive price movements seems to last 3-5 weeks max before either consolidating or reversing so during that time would be taking partial profits and tightening up with trailing stops. Price consolidate for another 2 months and b/o again on 50DMA as support. Higher volumes on green candles versus lower volumes on red candles was the clue that accumulation vs. distribution was occuring. Another price movement for 5 weeks w/1 week consolidation on tight price and low volume suggest continuation instead of reversal. Should be taking profits once again during this surge as a price seems to exhaust after 4 weeks max. At min., would place stop on low of the last green candle as last line of defense. Afterwards, bye-bye as price broke 50DMA on huge volume.
cpwm: 1st clue was up week on high vol. in Jan'10. Price consolidated on lower vol., but price was tight(on 50DMA) and never dipped near the b/o in Jan. Price closed above 200DMA on high volume, then spent next 2-3 days consolidating before b/o again all with high volume on up days, compared to vol. on down days. If I was watching this stock the price close above 200DMA with vol. patterns, this would be the place for me to be taking positions. B/O for 3 weeks, then p/b to 50DMA again, but price dropped instead of b/o again like the other stocks. Remind me to always take profit in this type of run-up. Can buy back again on b/o, which happened in Nov'10. 4 strong weeks of price movement with last 2 green candles signaling exhaustion. Same as HDY at the end, so make sure to sell into strength and not get too greedy.
Thanks bh for putting this site up, never really contributed to the stockbee site as a member, but learned alot from everyone there too. Mostly unlearning stuff before finding stockbee way of concept, strategy, then tactics. Interested in others view on these stocks as everyone has a different way of interpretation .
amrn: 1st b/o on 10MA/40MA crossover, consolidate in cup/handle with b/o(gap up) towards end of Oct/begin. of Nov. on highest volume. follow-thru momentum till end of Dec. Looks like exhaustion run on last 3 candles with long tails. I would close position on the 2nd to last candle as it looks like distribution (high volume, but price closed lower than open for the week.
ReplyDeleterdcm: 1st b/o Oct '09, consolidation till April '10 on high vol. b/o again price ran up for 4 weeks before p/b to 50DMA where support came an more buyers ran stock up another 4-5 weeks. I would look to capture partial profits during that 4-5 week run on both b/o and bought back some on the p/b to 50DMA, based on higher volume on up days, lower volumes on down days during consolidation phase. Highest volume selloff around Oct '11, so definitely would have exited by then. Looks like distribution after that as higher vol on down days versus up days. Would have played the b/o on the 50DMA as a quick trade with target near $13 (high point of weekly volume selloff), most likely w/0.5%R.
HDY: Major b/o around Oct'10, no p/b on next 2 weeks on tight consolidation. Looks like no sellers and then another 3 weeks of upward price movement. I would probably be looking to capture profits in that upswing. Explosive price movements seems to last 3-5 weeks max before either consolidating or reversing so during that time would be taking partial profits and tightening up with trailing stops. Price consolidate for another 2 months and b/o again on 50DMA as support. Higher volumes on green candles versus lower volumes on red candles was the clue that accumulation vs. distribution was occuring. Another price movement for 5 weeks w/1 week consolidation on tight price and low volume suggest continuation instead of reversal. Should be taking profits once again during this surge as a price seems to exhaust after 4 weeks max. At min., would place stop on low of the last green candle as last line of defense. Afterwards, bye-bye as price broke 50DMA on huge volume.
ReplyDeletecpwm: 1st clue was up week on high vol. in Jan'10. Price consolidated on lower vol., but price was tight(on 50DMA) and never dipped near the b/o in Jan. Price closed above 200DMA on high volume, then spent next 2-3 days consolidating before b/o again all with high volume on up days, compared to vol. on down days. If I was watching this stock the price close above 200DMA with vol. patterns, this would be the place for me to be taking positions. B/O for 3 weeks, then p/b to 50DMA again, but price dropped instead of b/o again like the other stocks. Remind me to always take profit in this type of run-up. Can buy back again on b/o, which happened in Nov'10. 4 strong weeks of price movement with last 2 green candles signaling exhaustion. Same as HDY at the end, so make sure to sell into strength and not get too greedy.
Thanks bh for putting this site up, never really contributed to the stockbee site as a member, but learned alot from everyone there too. Mostly unlearning stuff before finding stockbee way of concept, strategy, then tactics. Interested in others view on these stocks as everyone has a different way of interpretation .
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