No trades last week...I had 4 all day meetings and basically had no market access. Looking back I think it was a good week to be away, no worse for the wear.
The market exhibited range bound behavior once again, reversing at resistance levels. The problem is that it went a good ways after turning. Volume all week was nothing to note, typical of summertime. Earnings season is pushing some stocks up while others get hammered. The market looks like it isn't quite ready for prime time with Europe continuing to pop up in the news. Oh and there is some kind of election coming up in a few months.
Market breadth was light on both sides but was mostly down. It reflected the lack of movement in the market and gave really no clear signals as to the next direction. The market looks to be rangebound until further notice.
This week I'll be keeping my eye on things intraday and looking for some TNA trades on the intraday charts. I would like to see the VIX pick up a little, this past week it dropped so low that TNA just wasn't moving that much intraday. I need movement to trade it, just trying to make a buck or two per share.
Looking through a couple of the Bluefin watch lists (Post Earnings and IPO), I have my watchlist ready for action if we get any. Looks a little less likely after Friday but we'll see what develops. If we bounce I will be putting together a short list as well. Good luck this week.
RYL
HNR
NSM
LL
WG
TXI
BWS
PCRX
WOR
SWHC
ALEX
LII
LF
NUVA
July 22, 2012
July 12, 2012
Trades Update
401k: No trades, still holding AAPL.
Trading Account: I got stopped out of my long TNA intraday trade this morning with a loss that was more than my risk thanks to the gap down. The good news is I got another long signal off the lunch time lows and made it all back plus a few bucks. So the day was a wash. I also sold my remaining shares of MGAM at the open as noted last night, it had an ugly day yesterday and closed under the 4ema.
So for the first time in a while, my trading account is in 100% cash. If we rally in the morning I'll be looking for a short signal for the afternoon since it is Friday...not to mention Friday the 13th!
The market itself continues its range bound behavior, buyers at support and sellers at resistance, no follow through in either direction. It will resolve itself and when it does I will be there.
Good night.
Trading Account: I got stopped out of my long TNA intraday trade this morning with a loss that was more than my risk thanks to the gap down. The good news is I got another long signal off the lunch time lows and made it all back plus a few bucks. So the day was a wash. I also sold my remaining shares of MGAM at the open as noted last night, it had an ugly day yesterday and closed under the 4ema.
So for the first time in a while, my trading account is in 100% cash. If we rally in the morning I'll be looking for a short signal for the afternoon since it is Friday...not to mention Friday the 13th!
The market itself continues its range bound behavior, buyers at support and sellers at resistance, no follow through in either direction. It will resolve itself and when it does I will be there.
Good night.
July 11, 2012
Trades Update
401k: No trades. I have less than 10% of the account still in AAPL.
Trading Account: I was in a meeting most of the day so I only had access for a while. One of those times was right at the close, when I got a long signal on the intraday TNA strategy. Still holding MGAM, but that is mainly because I was busy entering the TNA trade. I will be selling MGAM stat in the morning after it closed below its 4ema.
Market view: Market is a bit oversold short term. Seems it wasn't that long ago I thought it was overbought, that was last Thursday night. That breadth thrust we got fizzled out pretty quick and is looking more like a range again. If you blinked or went on vacation for the 4th, you missed it, and were welcomed back to 3 days of crap.
I'm going to be slammed at work for the next few days so hopefully the market doesn't do too much, but I'll be trading when I can if the signal comes.
Night.
Trading Account: I was in a meeting most of the day so I only had access for a while. One of those times was right at the close, when I got a long signal on the intraday TNA strategy. Still holding MGAM, but that is mainly because I was busy entering the TNA trade. I will be selling MGAM stat in the morning after it closed below its 4ema.
Market view: Market is a bit oversold short term. Seems it wasn't that long ago I thought it was overbought, that was last Thursday night. That breadth thrust we got fizzled out pretty quick and is looking more like a range again. If you blinked or went on vacation for the 4th, you missed it, and were welcomed back to 3 days of crap.
I'm going to be slammed at work for the next few days so hopefully the market doesn't do too much, but I'll be trading when I can if the signal comes.
Night.
July 10, 2012
Trades Update
401k:
V: Exited V on market weakness and the fact that it did not recover yesterday's downgrade move.
TNA: Also exited the TNA trade at break-even, as my stop had already moved to entry. It got less than a buck away from my target price before turning down. Bummer. The 10-day ratio on MM fell below 2 today, but the market was down 4 days in a row so I did not take the signal per the method.
AAPL: Still hold my few shares of AAPL and the rest is socked away in cash.
Trading Account:
AAPL: Exited AAPL for a $30/share profit. It came to far from the $620 highs when it got to $610, which is when I sold. I had more than half my account in the stock so it made for a nice quiet gain on capital.
TNA (long intraday): I also exited an intraday TNA trade from yesterday: I exited half in pre-market at $1 profit and the rest hit my stop at my entry price, so I made 50c a share there. Small, but I'll take it all day. The intraday signal for TNA did not trigger today but it may trigger a short term bounce entry tomorrow given we have gotten a bit oversold short term.
MGAM: I still hold MGAM and am riding the 4ema with half my original position; it held up very well today and was actually up almost 2% in a crap market. This now my only position and a small one at that.
Night.
V: Exited V on market weakness and the fact that it did not recover yesterday's downgrade move.
TNA: Also exited the TNA trade at break-even, as my stop had already moved to entry. It got less than a buck away from my target price before turning down. Bummer. The 10-day ratio on MM fell below 2 today, but the market was down 4 days in a row so I did not take the signal per the method.
AAPL: Still hold my few shares of AAPL and the rest is socked away in cash.
Trading Account:
AAPL: Exited AAPL for a $30/share profit. It came to far from the $620 highs when it got to $610, which is when I sold. I had more than half my account in the stock so it made for a nice quiet gain on capital.
TNA (long intraday): I also exited an intraday TNA trade from yesterday: I exited half in pre-market at $1 profit and the rest hit my stop at my entry price, so I made 50c a share there. Small, but I'll take it all day. The intraday signal for TNA did not trigger today but it may trigger a short term bounce entry tomorrow given we have gotten a bit oversold short term.
MGAM: I still hold MGAM and am riding the 4ema with half my original position; it held up very well today and was actually up almost 2% in a crap market. This now my only position and a small one at that.
Night.
July 9, 2012
Trades Update
401k: No trades. Got a downgrade from UBS on V, thanks guys. V recovered nicely but it was at 52-week highs when it got downgraded. Makes you wonder. At any rate, still holding AAPL and long TNA.
Trading Account: Sold TNA intraday trade on the morning decline, 0.5% loss on that. Entered another long TNA intraday trade at around 11:00 and watched the paint dry till the close. It sits near entry and looks like I'll have to pay attention to the open again in the morning. Still holding AAPL and half position in MGAM.
Market looks like it is at least taking a rest, selling has not been very heavy the last two days of decline. Certain stocks have held up well and some are setting up. My favorite is AMZN which is quietly consolidating under its highs. Get the feeling earnings may boost it through if it breaks out, of course that could go the other way as well.
Regarding my TNA method, I found one mistake in my testing and am in the process of re-performing it just to double check everything. I did the testing in late 2011 so it is a good refresher. I will have a couple of changes to make to it after my testing is done. I also added another year to my testing since the data was still available in the old Telechart. The method is currently long with a stop at entry.
Have a good night.
Trading Account: Sold TNA intraday trade on the morning decline, 0.5% loss on that. Entered another long TNA intraday trade at around 11:00 and watched the paint dry till the close. It sits near entry and looks like I'll have to pay attention to the open again in the morning. Still holding AAPL and half position in MGAM.
Market looks like it is at least taking a rest, selling has not been very heavy the last two days of decline. Certain stocks have held up well and some are setting up. My favorite is AMZN which is quietly consolidating under its highs. Get the feeling earnings may boost it through if it breaks out, of course that could go the other way as well.
Regarding my TNA method, I found one mistake in my testing and am in the process of re-performing it just to double check everything. I did the testing in late 2011 so it is a good refresher. I will have a couple of changes to make to it after my testing is done. I also added another year to my testing since the data was still available in the old Telechart. The method is currently long with a stop at entry.
Have a good night.
July 6, 2012
Trades Update
401K: No new trades. Still holding long positions in TNA, AAPL, V.
Trading account: Still holding AAPL and MGAM entered previously and holding up okay. My only trades today were to cover the TNA short that was entered Thursday afternoon as an intraday trade, and then entered a long TNA intraday trade at 3:30 this afternoon with a stop at today's low. Only looking for a dollar or two move there using the 30-minute chart.
Market View: Market breadth was not bad today and in general still looks good. It is not encouraging to see such a big drop but the market made a good rally recently, so the fact that it was not a widespread sell off is a silver lining. My bias is still long and will buy good breakouts as they appear. I hoped to buy something else in my 401k Thursday or Friday but nothing I liked showed up, maybe next week after this pullback some stocks will have a chance to build some small bases.
Have a great weekend.
Trading account: Still holding AAPL and MGAM entered previously and holding up okay. My only trades today were to cover the TNA short that was entered Thursday afternoon as an intraday trade, and then entered a long TNA intraday trade at 3:30 this afternoon with a stop at today's low. Only looking for a dollar or two move there using the 30-minute chart.
Market View: Market breadth was not bad today and in general still looks good. It is not encouraging to see such a big drop but the market made a good rally recently, so the fact that it was not a widespread sell off is a silver lining. My bias is still long and will buy good breakouts as they appear. I hoped to buy something else in my 401k Thursday or Friday but nothing I liked showed up, maybe next week after this pullback some stocks will have a chance to build some small bases.
Have a great weekend.
July 5, 2012
Market View and Trades Update
Market and Breadth: The market looks pretty good, although a little overbought short term. The pullback today was mild, so that is good news. The breadth indicators on MM are green, so that is good news. The 10-day ratio looks to join the 5-day ratio above the 2 level, so that is good news. But tomorrow we have the jobs report and it could render all that useless for at least 30 minutes. How the market reacts in either direction will be interesting. Will a gap down be bought? Will a gap up be sold? We shall see. I will be watching how the market reacts to whatever happens.
Today's trading activity:
401k: Exited EBAY after it went through stop of $41 again. Lost about 3% on that one. It recovered a bit intraday but that stock just wasn't working, and EBAY is not a stock like AAPL that you can wait on. Next. Still holding AAPL, V, and TNA all profitable for now. I am not as much invested as I probably should be, barely 60% right now.
Trading Account: I took some profits today as a few stocks looked like they were petering out a bit. I exited INCY with a nifty 4.5% gain, but it looked ready to pullback after not holding its highs and I don't like holding biotechs very long in any market when swing trading. On MGAM, I exited half the position with about a 8% gain. MGAM compared to INCY had a very good volume bump on its move up, so I am willing to see where that one goes up along the 4ema. Also in my trading account, I was in and out of LF on its breakout for a 1c loss, essentially break even. The stock simply gave up too much of its gains all the way back to my entry point intraday, and that is a no-no for me. I've said before, I hate that stock.
My trading account still holds AAPL and half a position in MGAM, plus a short TNA trade using an intraday method I am trying out. But first, the stocks I took money out of today are below:
MGAM had a better volume surge on its move up, and may test its 4ema soon, so I took half my profits after an 8% gain. I will ride a trailing stop on the rest at the 4ema on a closing basis. If the market weakens here, it could pull back for a bit.
LF was one that I entered this morning and got caught up in the breakout moving so quickly that I paid more that what I wanted to. The stock ran up and I had a 5-6% gain at one time, but it came all the way back to my entry and I had seen enough of the froggy one. It will probably go up but this stock is just wild. The name fits. Ended up breaking even so no harm done. Just hate the stock more now.
On another note, I am working on an intraday trading method for TNA right now, which I hope to post later this summer. It is mostly done but only lacks some live testing. I am trying it out going forward. Since it requires some discretion I will try it out on my own account for a while first. It's funny, using that intraday system, I was short TNA at the close. So I am long TNA by one method on larger time frame and short in a different account on a smaller time frame. It's like having two friends that are dating the same girl...somebody is going to be worse off the next morning.
Today's trading activity:
401k: Exited EBAY after it went through stop of $41 again. Lost about 3% on that one. It recovered a bit intraday but that stock just wasn't working, and EBAY is not a stock like AAPL that you can wait on. Next. Still holding AAPL, V, and TNA all profitable for now. I am not as much invested as I probably should be, barely 60% right now.
Trading Account: I took some profits today as a few stocks looked like they were petering out a bit. I exited INCY with a nifty 4.5% gain, but it looked ready to pullback after not holding its highs and I don't like holding biotechs very long in any market when swing trading. On MGAM, I exited half the position with about a 8% gain. MGAM compared to INCY had a very good volume bump on its move up, so I am willing to see where that one goes up along the 4ema. Also in my trading account, I was in and out of LF on its breakout for a 1c loss, essentially break even. The stock simply gave up too much of its gains all the way back to my entry point intraday, and that is a no-no for me. I've said before, I hate that stock.
My trading account still holds AAPL and half a position in MGAM, plus a short TNA trade using an intraday method I am trying out. But first, the stocks I took money out of today are below:
INCY looks pretty good on its 4ema but the
volume on this move doesn't look any higher
than the the volume during the base.
I'll take the 3-day gain and move on.
LF was one that I entered this morning and got caught up in the breakout moving so quickly that I paid more that what I wanted to. The stock ran up and I had a 5-6% gain at one time, but it came all the way back to my entry and I had seen enough of the froggy one. It will probably go up but this stock is just wild. The name fits. Ended up breaking even so no harm done. Just hate the stock more now.
On another note, I am working on an intraday trading method for TNA right now, which I hope to post later this summer. It is mostly done but only lacks some live testing. I am trying it out going forward. Since it requires some discretion I will try it out on my own account for a while first. It's funny, using that intraday system, I was short TNA at the close. So I am long TNA by one method on larger time frame and short in a different account on a smaller time frame. It's like having two friends that are dating the same girl...somebody is going to be worse off the next morning.
Look for the jobs report to gear the early trade tomorrow.
July 4, 2012
Using the 4ema to Stay In a Winner
At some point in trading, the fruits of the trader's labor will pay off and the trader will get in on a big winner early.
In the last year, I learned about the 4ema from two different traders, Dan over at http://www.patientfisherman.blogspot.com/ and Tumbler at http://www.followtumblertrades.com/. They use the 4ema on different time frames, but they got me started watching the 4ema more. After a while I gained some comfort with it. Over time, it has shown itself as a good tool to help a trader stay in a big winner by using it as a trailing stop on a closing basis as areas to take profits.
This strategy may goes against the idea of selling on strength, which I have normally used at least as an initial profit taking strategy, sometimes a sell all strategy, when trading momentum. But when you get into a stock that is about to make a big run, the 4ema can help keep a trader in the trade for most if not all of the run up. I still believe in taking profits on strength, but when a stock makes a big run after initial profit taking, the 4ema can help catch it.
I have posted two sample trades below, each making 40%+ by using the 4ema as a trailing stop. Assume selling in either 20% or 25% increments.
First is AAPL. This is an actual trade that I still hold 20% of after 4 sales of shares along the 4ema. This was a long term purchase in my 401k, so when I entered I had no plan to use the 4ema as an exit tool. But after the gap up on earnings, I began to look for exit points. I thought it may continue its run, so I used the 4ema as my selling point and held through pullbacks. The stock moved from $395 to $644, a 63% gain. Using the 4ema, I caught 44%, so more than two-thirds of the move was captured.
The second example is on a trade I entered but sold on initial strength for a quick gain. Hindsight is 20/20, but take a look for yourself what I missed after my little 7% gain. The stock was CALL, maker of the MajicJackPlus product. in mid-December, they announced that sales of the product were so good, they were cancelling a secondary offering. Sales went through the roof (I even bought it), and the stock doubled. Using the 4ema, I could have made 48% instead of 7%.
It's just one more way to skin the cat, but if you find yourself in a stock with 50% potential and it makes a big run, you can use a moving average as a trailing stop. IBD does this with the 50-day average with the volume requirement. The difference here is that using the 4ema will have you mostly out by the time stocks like this pullback to test their 50-day averages. Some traders use the 6-day, some use the 10-day or the 8-day. It's all about comfort and the trader's style of trading.
Happy 4th and happy trading.
In the last year, I learned about the 4ema from two different traders, Dan over at http://www.patientfisherman.blogspot.com/ and Tumbler at http://www.followtumblertrades.com/. They use the 4ema on different time frames, but they got me started watching the 4ema more. After a while I gained some comfort with it. Over time, it has shown itself as a good tool to help a trader stay in a big winner by using it as a trailing stop on a closing basis as areas to take profits.
This strategy may goes against the idea of selling on strength, which I have normally used at least as an initial profit taking strategy, sometimes a sell all strategy, when trading momentum. But when you get into a stock that is about to make a big run, the 4ema can help keep a trader in the trade for most if not all of the run up. I still believe in taking profits on strength, but when a stock makes a big run after initial profit taking, the 4ema can help catch it.
I have posted two sample trades below, each making 40%+ by using the 4ema as a trailing stop. Assume selling in either 20% or 25% increments.
First is AAPL. This is an actual trade that I still hold 20% of after 4 sales of shares along the 4ema. This was a long term purchase in my 401k, so when I entered I had no plan to use the 4ema as an exit tool. But after the gap up on earnings, I began to look for exit points. I thought it may continue its run, so I used the 4ema as my selling point and held through pullbacks. The stock moved from $395 to $644, a 63% gain. Using the 4ema, I caught 44%, so more than two-thirds of the move was captured.
The second example is on a trade I entered but sold on initial strength for a quick gain. Hindsight is 20/20, but take a look for yourself what I missed after my little 7% gain. The stock was CALL, maker of the MajicJackPlus product. in mid-December, they announced that sales of the product were so good, they were cancelling a secondary offering. Sales went through the roof (I even bought it), and the stock doubled. Using the 4ema, I could have made 48% instead of 7%.
It's just one more way to skin the cat, but if you find yourself in a stock with 50% potential and it makes a big run, you can use a moving average as a trailing stop. IBD does this with the 50-day average with the volume requirement. The difference here is that using the 4ema will have you mostly out by the time stocks like this pullback to test their 50-day averages. Some traders use the 6-day, some use the 10-day or the 8-day. It's all about comfort and the trader's style of trading.
Happy 4th and happy trading.
July 2, 2012
Trades update
Trading Account: Sold LF, Bought INCY
401k: Bought V in a.m.
In my trading account, I dumped LF this morning due to bad behavior, before it faked yet another move up. Hate that stock. I replaced it with INCY mid day and luckily INCY ran into the close. My AAPL, MGAM, and NTSP trades all look good right now but that can change quickly so looking to take at least partial profits if we see much more strength. All stops have been moved up to entry points.
I bought V as it was breaking toward new highs this morningIn my 401k, it looks good right now but follow through is always a question. Also in my 401k I still hold 20% of my original position in AAPL that I bought at $395 in December. I may add to that position in the morning with a target at the old highs. My 401k also holds TNA on the Friday signal.
The one I am miffed at is EBAY, which is also in my 401k. The stock looked great on its breakout and then fell back hard and didn't recover very much. I may need to let that one go and put that capital into something that is working, or I can see what it does going into earnings. If I find a good candidate to buy in the morning I will look to replace EBAY.
Overall not a bad day today. The market did not offer much in the way of follow through but some stocks that broke out Friday followed through on their breakouts. We'll see if this lasts days or weeks. At some point we need some follow through on the 600+ breadth day we had last Friday. With a holiday in the middle of the week this week, volume is sure to be low and markets could be a bit choppy or volatile. This may be an ideal spot for a pullback or drift sideways on low volume. With the 5-day ratio on MM above 2 and the 10-day ratio approaching the same, I have to be long and fully invested, especially coming out of a correction.
I'll be monitoring things closely tomorrow possibly to replace EBAY. I will also be looking to take some partial profits on anything showing unusual strength.
Cheers and Happy Birthday USA!!!
401k: Bought V in a.m.
In my trading account, I dumped LF this morning due to bad behavior, before it faked yet another move up. Hate that stock. I replaced it with INCY mid day and luckily INCY ran into the close. My AAPL, MGAM, and NTSP trades all look good right now but that can change quickly so looking to take at least partial profits if we see much more strength. All stops have been moved up to entry points.
I bought V as it was breaking toward new highs this morningIn my 401k, it looks good right now but follow through is always a question. Also in my 401k I still hold 20% of my original position in AAPL that I bought at $395 in December. I may add to that position in the morning with a target at the old highs. My 401k also holds TNA on the Friday signal.
The one I am miffed at is EBAY, which is also in my 401k. The stock looked great on its breakout and then fell back hard and didn't recover very much. I may need to let that one go and put that capital into something that is working, or I can see what it does going into earnings. If I find a good candidate to buy in the morning I will look to replace EBAY.
Overall not a bad day today. The market did not offer much in the way of follow through but some stocks that broke out Friday followed through on their breakouts. We'll see if this lasts days or weeks. At some point we need some follow through on the 600+ breadth day we had last Friday. With a holiday in the middle of the week this week, volume is sure to be low and markets could be a bit choppy or volatile. This may be an ideal spot for a pullback or drift sideways on low volume. With the 5-day ratio on MM above 2 and the 10-day ratio approaching the same, I have to be long and fully invested, especially coming out of a correction.
I'll be monitoring things closely tomorrow possibly to replace EBAY. I will also be looking to take some partial profits on anything showing unusual strength.
Cheers and Happy Birthday USA!!!
June 29, 2012
Yes! No! Yes!
I was stopped out of both AAPL and LNKD yesterday just in time for the reversal upward. Ain't that today's market? That can happen when stops are at support levels, you get whipsawed and watch your stock recover the losses. Hey it happens. Next trade.
So today I got right back in AAPL, although at a higher price. Also entered MGAM and NTSP, which held their gains to the close. Took LF early but it gave up its gains and is not looking too good.
TNA Method triggered a buy signal today on the close, bought just after hours. Running a $3 stop under entry for now.
Final MM figures look like a 600+ positive breadth day today with breadth improving on the secondary indicators. Although we gapped up and stayed there, it was noticeable what we DIDN'T do, and that was sell off on the gains. Recent behavior would lead one to expect heavy profit taking for the weekend and that did not happen, so we will see what the shortened week brings next week. I don't expect a lot of volume but will take what the market makes available.
Have a great weekend. It is 106 degrees today and the weekend forecast calls for the same, so I should be able to do some research this weekend and be ready for earnings season which is just ahead. Cheers.
So today I got right back in AAPL, although at a higher price. Also entered MGAM and NTSP, which held their gains to the close. Took LF early but it gave up its gains and is not looking too good.
TNA Method triggered a buy signal today on the close, bought just after hours. Running a $3 stop under entry for now.
Final MM figures look like a 600+ positive breadth day today with breadth improving on the secondary indicators. Although we gapped up and stayed there, it was noticeable what we DIDN'T do, and that was sell off on the gains. Recent behavior would lead one to expect heavy profit taking for the weekend and that did not happen, so we will see what the shortened week brings next week. I don't expect a lot of volume but will take what the market makes available.
Have a great weekend. It is 106 degrees today and the weekend forecast calls for the same, so I should be able to do some research this weekend and be ready for earnings season which is just ahead. Cheers.
June 26, 2012
Trades Update
In this type of market, if I am going to trade, it is going to be pullbacks to support or anticipation of breakouts, with hope of taking profits at the breakout level. I have done that with both AAPL and LNKD. Both stocks are within consolidation at different points. AAPL is at support and LNKD is moving up within its range nearing the highs. With month end and beginning of the 3rd quarter upon us, there is usually a bullish tendency to the market in general. If that happens hear we could see a tradable bounce into the July 4th holidays.
Back in AAPL today at $571.47 with a stop $5 below entry. Stock has made a nice pullback to tight range support and could bounce here with first of the month and earnings season coming. First target is $590 and optimistic target is the old highs. Risk is 0.5%.
Entered LNKD at $106.48 in another trade within a range, anticipating a breakout. Stop is $4 below entry; risk is 0.5%. I was hoping for a stronger move into the close from LNKD but the market pulled back near the close and spoiled my fun. If it doesn't break through the highs of the range on the next test, likely tomorrow or the next day, it will be time to cut and run for now. I must say though, it looks like it wants to breakout, just needs volume to push it through. Will ride the 4ema up if it breaks out.
Still in EBAY with a stop at $41. This one may test support here for a few days, but it has held it breakout area nicely. I don't want to see it hang here too long before resuming its up move.
Back in AAPL today at $571.47 with a stop $5 below entry. Stock has made a nice pullback to tight range support and could bounce here with first of the month and earnings season coming. First target is $590 and optimistic target is the old highs. Risk is 0.5%.
Entered LNKD at $106.48 in another trade within a range, anticipating a breakout. Stop is $4 below entry; risk is 0.5%. I was hoping for a stronger move into the close from LNKD but the market pulled back near the close and spoiled my fun. If it doesn't break through the highs of the range on the next test, likely tomorrow or the next day, it will be time to cut and run for now. I must say though, it looks like it wants to breakout, just needs volume to push it through. Will ride the 4ema up if it breaks out.
Still in EBAY with a stop at $41. This one may test support here for a few days, but it has held it breakout area nicely. I don't want to see it hang here too long before resuming its up move.
June 21, 2012
Trades Update
Stopped out of AAPL today at $580. EBAY still in with stop at $41. The market action obviously was not good today, with over 500 stocks down 4% or more on higher volume. I will keep close tabs on EBAY and shut it down if the breakout fails and stop is hit.
June 19, 2012
Favorite Charts from Monday
Entered both of these yesterday. Treading lightly with 1% risk on each. The EBAY chart in particular caught my eye before the breakout and the volume was very nice on the new highs yesterday.
June 13, 2012
Breadth Thrust from a Bottom
Using the 2011 bottom as an example, this is what a breadth thrust on Market Monitor should look like from the bottom up. Note that even after this thrust, we had a shakeout / retest in November 2011 before we got the follow through breadth thrust in December/January. Note the large size of the up days coming off the 10/3/11 capitulation day. These are not just 300-400 days, these are 1201, 415, 538, 603, 628, 1683 up days; huge breadth on the upside. At the time we were in a very volatile market, so the 300-500 negative breadth days were not out of the ordinary, and were relatively small when you look at the surrounding positive days. It tells you there is some serious buying in the market. This is what we want to see, but it may only come after a capitulation type sell off similar to the last few days of September 2011. Europe may provide exactly that at some point. We shall see.
Compare the above to what we have now and you can see the difference:
June 10, 2012
Weekly Wheelhouse View of the Market
I really should rename this post tri-annual wheelhouse, given how long it has been since I posted one. Come on, I have two kids and a trophy wife to keep happy, not to mention a full time job and swing trading on the side. So let's take a quick look at the situation here.
If you just look at where we have been the past month or so, you will see that it has not paid to be a swing trader. Although the selling has not been broad based or on heavy volume, it has not been a good time to trade my style. Since my primary method is based on momentum breakouts, I basically have to sit back and enjoy the show during these times. We had a pretty linear sell off in May, and many leaders had their charts taken out behind the woodshed. However, the selling was not in the range of 600+ down breadth days as we would see during a bear market. At this point, I see this as a nice correction after a 3-month rally rather than a bear market. However, that does not mean that this won't turn into a nasty bear market.
So here we sit, with a 5-day ratio above 2.0, mainly because a large down day dropped off the calculation range. My research on MM and TNA has indicated that when the market takes an entire 5 days to create a breadth thrust during a down trend, it should be approached cautiously. I have a rule that I do not enter on a breadth thrust if the market was up 3 straight days; typically this indicates an oversold bounce and a short-term overbought condition, especially when the market is either in a down trend or range-bound. Could this turn into a new bull rally? Rather than answer yes, or no, let's take a look at the start of the most recent rally from the MM point of view. Notice the volatile action in early December followed by a 900+ up breadth day on 12/20/2011. That day was key - it also flipped the secondary ratio from red to green (# of stocks up 25% in a month). You will then notice the breadth action that followed...there were no huge down days, only mild pullbacks followed the 12/20/2011 up day. Then, on 1/3/12, we got the follow through, and off we went.
Now comparing that action to the current action, my best guess is that this is a technical bounce within a downtrend. That doesn't mean the market won't go up, it just means the rally has a foundation made of sand instead of brick and will not likely last very long.
Based on my last post back in April, I am better off fishing than trying to trade breakouts in this type of action.
I have not posted here but market bread indicators such as $BPNYA are still in bearish mode, even though there seems to be a little hope and excitement about the recent days. Spain got a bailout this weekend, but geopolitical stuff is totally unpredictable. If the market gaps up on Monday, which it probably will on the Spain news, it will suck in some swing traders. Don't be that guy. If this is truly the start of a broad rally, there will be chances to enter later. For now, this is a counter trend rally into resistance, and should be treated as such.
I may be wrong, and that is perfectly fine. My objective is to make money, not to be right. And as of now I am beating the market in both my trading account and my 401k, which is fantastic in my book.
Best of luck this week.
If you just look at where we have been the past month or so, you will see that it has not paid to be a swing trader. Although the selling has not been broad based or on heavy volume, it has not been a good time to trade my style. Since my primary method is based on momentum breakouts, I basically have to sit back and enjoy the show during these times. We had a pretty linear sell off in May, and many leaders had their charts taken out behind the woodshed. However, the selling was not in the range of 600+ down breadth days as we would see during a bear market. At this point, I see this as a nice correction after a 3-month rally rather than a bear market. However, that does not mean that this won't turn into a nasty bear market.
So here we sit, with a 5-day ratio above 2.0, mainly because a large down day dropped off the calculation range. My research on MM and TNA has indicated that when the market takes an entire 5 days to create a breadth thrust during a down trend, it should be approached cautiously. I have a rule that I do not enter on a breadth thrust if the market was up 3 straight days; typically this indicates an oversold bounce and a short-term overbought condition, especially when the market is either in a down trend or range-bound. Could this turn into a new bull rally? Rather than answer yes, or no, let's take a look at the start of the most recent rally from the MM point of view. Notice the volatile action in early December followed by a 900+ up breadth day on 12/20/2011. That day was key - it also flipped the secondary ratio from red to green (# of stocks up 25% in a month). You will then notice the breadth action that followed...there were no huge down days, only mild pullbacks followed the 12/20/2011 up day. Then, on 1/3/12, we got the follow through, and off we went.
Based on my last post back in April, I am better off fishing than trying to trade breakouts in this type of action.
I have not posted here but market bread indicators such as $BPNYA are still in bearish mode, even though there seems to be a little hope and excitement about the recent days. Spain got a bailout this weekend, but geopolitical stuff is totally unpredictable. If the market gaps up on Monday, which it probably will on the Spain news, it will suck in some swing traders. Don't be that guy. If this is truly the start of a broad rally, there will be chances to enter later. For now, this is a counter trend rally into resistance, and should be treated as such.
I may be wrong, and that is perfectly fine. My objective is to make money, not to be right. And as of now I am beating the market in both my trading account and my 401k, which is fantastic in my book.
Best of luck this week.
April 16, 2012
Analyzing Prior Trades
My favorite part of trading is making money. The results tell you whether you are doing something right or something wrong. But they don't tell you what you may have done well or not so well.
My least favorite part of trading is analyzing lists of prior trades; probably because it reminds me that I am not the worlds greatest trader and allows me to see mistakes I have made. I have underestimated it as a learning tool in the past but I have been trying to analyze my trades either quarterly or during corrections since last year. This has reminded me that analyzing prior trades later on can be valuable in exposing trading errors or telling you whether certain time periods are not good times to trade. You may not always pick up on these and really think clearly about them after you just had your stop taken out and had the stock rally 20% without you, or had your breakout reverse the next day on a letter from some suit (hello GS).
I look at all my trades immediately after I close them, I move to the next one pretty quickly and chalk it up to a trade that didn't work. Since the market has gone into a little correction phase here, I thought it was a perfect time to analyze my YTD trades and see if I had some things to improve on. Unfortunately, and fortunately at the same time, I had plenty to see.
I simply took my trade log and calculated my trading accuracy, average winner, and average loser (%). I then calculated an AvgW/AvgL ratio. Then I inserted columns for various Market Monitor indicators (5-day ratio, 10-day ratio, and Primary Indicator Stocks Down raw figure). Any time the 5-day and/or 10-day ratios were >2, the respective column got shaded. Any time the Primary indicator reached bullish extremes (i.e. overbought), that column got shaded. This made it fairly simple to see how I did during certain market phases as dictated by MM. I can clearly see when I did well and when I did not.
In addition, I labeled each trade as either a breakout failure, breakout failure with no follow through, stop and go (takes your stop out and rallies...hate that), trading error, and pre-eps report exit. It is possible for trades that make money to have one of these categories assigned, and trades can end up in more than one category as well.
Without further delay, here's my trading stats for through April 13th. The cumulative gain loss is simply the raw total of my % gain/loss on all trades, it is not my actual portfolio return due to position sizing.
My least favorite part of trading is analyzing lists of prior trades; probably because it reminds me that I am not the worlds greatest trader and allows me to see mistakes I have made. I have underestimated it as a learning tool in the past but I have been trying to analyze my trades either quarterly or during corrections since last year. This has reminded me that analyzing prior trades later on can be valuable in exposing trading errors or telling you whether certain time periods are not good times to trade. You may not always pick up on these and really think clearly about them after you just had your stop taken out and had the stock rally 20% without you, or had your breakout reverse the next day on a letter from some suit (hello GS).
I look at all my trades immediately after I close them, I move to the next one pretty quickly and chalk it up to a trade that didn't work. Since the market has gone into a little correction phase here, I thought it was a perfect time to analyze my YTD trades and see if I had some things to improve on. Unfortunately, and fortunately at the same time, I had plenty to see.
I simply took my trade log and calculated my trading accuracy, average winner, and average loser (%). I then calculated an AvgW/AvgL ratio. Then I inserted columns for various Market Monitor indicators (5-day ratio, 10-day ratio, and Primary Indicator Stocks Down raw figure). Any time the 5-day and/or 10-day ratios were >2, the respective column got shaded. Any time the Primary indicator reached bullish extremes (i.e. overbought), that column got shaded. This made it fairly simple to see how I did during certain market phases as dictated by MM. I can clearly see when I did well and when I did not.
In addition, I labeled each trade as either a breakout failure, breakout failure with no follow through, stop and go (takes your stop out and rallies...hate that), trading error, and pre-eps report exit. It is possible for trades that make money to have one of these categories assigned, and trades can end up in more than one category as well.
Without further delay, here's my trading stats for through April 13th. The cumulative gain loss is simply the raw total of my % gain/loss on all trades, it is not my actual portfolio return due to position sizing.
January 31, 2012
DJI
Laptop battery is on fumes right now so real quick. Keep an eye on the DJI. It is near highs. Later!
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